The pound has slightly risen, bitcoin has slightly fallen, as Boris Johnson becomes Prime Minister of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
This very small rise in the pound after months of freefall is probably because markets are relieved grandmas did not surprise and returned to power the one everyone expected.
Pound Euro, July 2019
The 77th Prime Minister will have a very packed schedule, starting with appointing the Brexit government while talking on the phone to kind of everyone.
Right now he’s probably getting that secret brief, stuff like, you know, whether them aliens are really inside area 51.
His initiation will then advance to the Queen, where the very wise grand grandma may well give him some worthy advice.
His beloved bike has been “banned.” He will have to travel only with a lot of security now, no cycling around London Bridge anymore or to downing street.
Once he is inside his new home, there will probably be some cheers and applause, with another energizing speech, and thus finally down to business.
Before that, seconds may seem like hours for many parliamentarians as they await their call, or lack of it, to learn what position they got.
With a new cabinet, a new government, no bike, a new cat, now what?
European America
His first decision may well be whether to meet Trump or Ursula. If he chooses the former few would care, and plenty would be annoyed. If instead he takes the express to Brussels, it is probable the entire world will be watching and very carefully.
The European Union has apparently already called an emergency summit, with it unclear whether this is more an internal matter or one of those roundtables.
If the latter, Boris has already made it somewhat clear what he will ask. He will go with Gatt 24 paragraph 5b and now also 5c.
That’s a sort of skeleton free trade agreement prior to a full on trade agreement that usually takes some ten years to negotiate.
Things like whether europeans can fish on english waters and vice versa. Whether an ICO licensed in Europe is taken as compliant in UK too. Whether there’s a need for border checks in Gibraltar, or of course in Norther Ireland. As well as a whole list of things that may well run to hundreds of pages.
All that agreed perhaps by September does sound a bit fanciful, with the negotiation currently stuck on whether the backstop should be first or the trade agreement.
For now and for a few weeks Boris does have quite a bit of room for maneuver. He may well meet Trump too, and the lack of any trade deficit between the two may well mean they can somewhat quickly reach a provisional trade agreement.
The traps are many, however, and the public opinion is probably currently on suspense as we all await that headline:
Boris Heads to Brussels
As an independent and largely apolitical “paper,” we, and the country, will have to back Boris while he is in Brussels.
The matters are far too serious, and complex, for him to not be given the full chance to try and achieve exactly what he wants to achieve.
In addition, there’s nothing here yet to pass any judgment. Once he comes back from Brussels, however, the country will have to make a decision.
Now some speculate out of completely thin air that maybe he will leave Brussels to the very last minute. That would be cheating as it would rob Britain the right to a decision.
A fair way to potentially unite the country would be to go to Brussels preferably immediately, and once he is back call an election in September.
That would give sufficient time for a new parliament prior to October 31st. The country then will either vote Boris back in with his deal or no deal as it may be, or will vote in the remain alliance.
Today’s poll suggests Boris may win, but that’s perhaps because most for now have suspended their judgment as there’s nothing on the table yet.
That’s relevant because if he thinks he can win, then he’d probably want to go for a proper majority, so giving him some bargaining chips in regards to DUP which such election may well take out of power.
He could lose, but it’s quite interesting they’re now revealing some transitionary one sided arrangements whereby EU unilaterally has implemented some sort of continuity no deal preparations that would kind of keep things running as they are in the most important aspects like derivatives clearing or air travel.
In a general election therefore, the country may well vote, by proxy, for Brexit again, deal or no deal. That’s provided Boris doesn’t make any blunders. Working with Farage in any way would be a pretty big one. Showing any hostility to Europe, likewise. Brinkmanship in a friendly way is obviously fine in a negotiation, but any suggestion that Britain is not European may well court voters’ punishment.
At the end of the day, Europe has to merge and unite. Pound Britain can’t quite merge without being part of the euro. So they’ll have to cooperate on case by case basis.
That’s because this can be seen as not quite an ideological decision or anything nationalist, but as an inevitable outcome of Britain being force out of the European Monetary Exchange Mechanism – the predecessor to the euro – by markets.
Meaning Britain can’t quite be part of the euro table, where almost everyone else is, and thus can’t quite be fully part of a merged European Union.
So leaving may well be best for UK and for Europe, but a very specific type of leaving, one where say war between EU and UK is not only unthinkable, but practically impossible.
That can be achieved if UK is considerably integrated into the European Union, if there’s some sort of special relationship, with the island acting as some sort of bridge between Europe and European America.
Achieving that can be difficult, but the two sides aren’t really that far off. It’s more a matter of negotiation skills, with Boris perhaps able to deliver.
Whether he will, or anywhere near it, remains to be seen, but the world has changed today.
A Britain under Theresa May was almost unbearable. Under Boris, there may well be that return of optimism which UK saw under Cameron prior to the Brexit mess.
The two are somewhat similar, if not really one and the same with just different hair colors.
They’re of a modernizing conservative brand, socially liberal and economically liberal. Free markets and tolerance for all. Booming enterprises while caring for the needy.
Boris may well be just what Britain and Europe needs to get their economies running again at full speed with both able to stand tall and proud with a clear vision and a clear path forward.
Yet Europe has taken down every conservative Prime Minister since UK joined. Public opinion can swing and very quickly. The honeymoon can be the entire premiership.
For the question is far too big and if the answer is not gotten right, it can be unforgiving. Thus no pressure Boris. You’ll be able to finally get back on your bike if you join the other conservative Prime Ministers anyway, so give it your best shot while you have the country in full support.
Just one word of advice: while by decree one can declare a Sunday to be a Monday, in a democracy a Sunday is a Sunday. Parliament is parliament. A mandate is a mandate. You bear that in mind, particularly the importance of legitimacy and the right of people to decide, and you should be alright. You can always cycle at Downing Street’s courtyard anyway.