After months of freefall, the pound has found a bit of peace for the past 4 days, hanging around euro parity, wondering perhaps whether it should cross below.
If it does, then calls may well rise to consider that question of whether Britain should join the euro and so be a full member in a sovereign European table, instead of a governor without voting rights in a Trump state.
GBP Euro, August 2019
That floor which the pound may have found for now has been met with a rising bitcoin, crossing $10,500 today in what may look like a reverse mirror chart of the above.
Bitcoin turns to rise, August 2019
Just what happens to both, bitcoin and pound, may well be decided by something else that is currently very volatile: British public opinion, specifically on Libdems.
Libdems hail what some are calling an historic victory in the Welsh constituency of Brecon and Radnorshire.
It was “the quickest by-election defeat for any new prime minister since World War Two,” says BBC.
They further say “the turnout was 59.6%… the highest for a by-election since Winchester in 1997.”
In effect this is the opening shot in a country that is pretty much on a campaigning mode with Libdems rising as the opposition to Boris Johnson, the current unelected Prime Minister.
Brecon and Radnorshire by-election results, August 2019
As we predicted, the race was closer than previous polls suggested, but Libdems have turned an 8,000 votes majority for conservatives into a 1,400 votes majority for Libdems.
In effect, they have pulled a huge swing with the Brexit Party now probably very worried as they’re losing relevance, while Labour is probably in panic.
Labour will of course dismiss this as tactical voting, but that’s precisely why this constant red for labour may turn into a whipeout in the general election.
While conservatives are accusing Libdems of working the system because of the remain alliance with Greens and the Welsh Plaid Cymru.
Libdems would probably laugh with joy at that suggestion and point out the current conservative Prime Minister has not even been elected. The conservative party, moreover, is a broad coalition with people at the edges of it probably considering the opposite tory edge as political enemies.
Neither red nor blue can talk about working the system after they’ve shown us over and over their expertise at doing just that, but does this betrayal of slight concern on the part of conservatives show something has changed?
The Political Race of a Generation
“This comes off the back of our best ever local election results and storming victories in the European elections where we beat both the Conservatives and the Labour parties to our best ever local election results too. So this is a sustained pattern of Liberal Democrats winning again, on the up.”
So says Jo Swinson, the current Libdem leader who thinks by some miracle she may well be Prime Minister or the leader of the official opposition.
Rumors of potential defections keep swirling with the conservative party now perhaps paranoid about who will be joining Libdems.
All those remain seat candidates, both blue and red, will have to think long and hard about yellow as the map may be redrawn alongside the lines of leave or remain rather than left or right.
Very interestingly, a Scottish conservative councillor Mark McGeever has defected to the Liberal Democrats.
The Scottish conservative party is kind of at war with Boris Johnson, making the very strongly remain Scotland ripe picking for Libdems.
With a Scottish born Jo Swinson, even nationalists may well think the question of Europe is currently a lot more important than that of independence.
In that case Libdems are likely to represent them more forcefully than SNP, especially as, although maybe with some miracle, they do have the chance of taking power or taking Corbyn’s place.
There’s a big difference in both of those positions from ones at the corner of the house where hardly anyone can hear SNP or current yellow Libdems.
Change of Guards?
Although winning the race would be extremely difficult for Libdems, coming second would be a complete transformation of British politics.
UK has suffered for quite some time now under no real opposition. The 48%, some 16 million people, who voted remain have been completely ignored and without a voice.
That’s until around three months ago when Libdems came out with Bollocks to Brexit. Ever since, yellow has been up and up while red has been falling.
If that tactical voting in Brecon and Radnorshire is mirrored across the country, then Labour and Libdems may change seats, with Jo Swinson grilling Boris Johnson rather than Corbyn and with yellow being a government in waiting rather than red.
The country may well think voting for labour is voting for Boris unopposed, not only because labour currently has zero chance of wining, but also because Corbyn obviously can’t be “reprogrammed” to remain.
There’s a difference between something you believe in, and something you just say for votes, but don’t mean it. That difference is reflected, and has been reflected, on Labour failing to represent the 48% and on Labour completely failing to be any sort of opposition on Brexit.
A vote for red therefore may well be no different than a landslide for blue, but if yellow can unite the remain side and take all them red votes and plenty of blue remain votes, then that win in Brecon and Radnorshire may well translate to a win in 100 or maybe 150 seats or more, maybe even 200.
That could allow them to form a coalition, but having a powerful voice in parliament may well matter as much as potentially by some miracle taking power.
That’s because this question of Europe is not going anywhere any time soon. Leave, what sort of leave? Remain, what sort of remain? Trade deal, what kind. Close, how close.
The country needs a proper opposition and representation in regards to all of these questions and others.
Labour has failed to provide any such opposition, nor can they be reprogrammed now when the wind has sailed, hence perhaps voters should punish them, and maybe even gleefully considering the Iraq war and all the mess for which they have not yet been punished.
This is a labour that barely campaigned for remain during the referendum. They stood aside watching blue tear itself apart in probably the hope that labour can then take power. Yet that absence may have cost them decimation.
While yellow stood to fill the role of the proper opposition, thus they should be rewarded with that microphone at the table, whichever side of it.
Thus it may well be the case that this general election – which Boris will have to call now because he can’t really command a majority anymore and thus the queen might have to recall him from being a prime minister if he doesn’t do so himself by calling a general election – will probably be maybe a politically transformative election.
For the first time in perhaps a century, this will probably be a blue v yellow election.
As, although some say this is a four horse race or even a five horse race, poll trends clearly show blue is racing up and only yellow is chasing them, while the rest are dropping off the picture.
Meaning this will be an election like no other. Even cats will probably turn out to vote, let alone the two legged ones.
Britain will have the opportunity to show the world just how it peacefully settles debates in a legitimate manner through a festival for democracy that will have the entire country engaged in an historic exercise of a sovereign and free peoples.